Sensor Tower estimates 6.08 million US digital GTA 6 preorders

GTA 6 had an estimated 6.08 million digital preorders in the United States as of October 13, according to analytics firm Sensor Tower, as reported by GamesIndustry.biz. The firm puts the revenue from those preorders at roughly $594 million.

These are third-party estimates, not figures from Rockstar or Take-Two.

What we know

Sensor Tower compared GTA 6's preorder trajectory with several large releases from recent years: Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (2022), Diablo 4, Hogwarts Legacy and Marvel's Spider-Man 2 (all 2023). According to GamesIndustry.biz, GTA 6 is running 148% ahead of Modern Warfare 2 at the same distance from launch. That is a high bar, since GamesIndustry.biz notes Modern Warfare 2 posted preorders more than double Diablo 4's at 45 days out and an $800 million opening weekend.

Other details from the Sensor Tower estimate:

• 74% of the preorders were on PlayStation and 26% on Xbox.
• Most buyers chose the $100 ultimate edition.
• The data covers US digital preorders only, so boxed copies and other regions are excluded.

In a separate GamesIndustry.biz report, gaming consultancy Open World assessed which audiences are most likely to drift toward GTA 6 at launch. It cited survey data indicating that 69% of PC and console players plan to play the game. Combining past overlap with GTA players and stated launch intent, Open World named Call of Duty, Battlefield, Apex Legends, Fortnite, EA Sports FC and NBA 2K as the titles most exposed. Counter-Strike 2 was flagged as an outlier: its players are more likely to have played a GTA game, but show lower intent to play GTA 6 at launch, which the firm links to it not being on console.

Players of driving and movement-focused games were judged the most likely to switch, followed by fans of high-stakes sessions and open-world play. Open World said dedicated communities are not safe either, warning that loyalty "will not protect a game from GTA 6." Its main advice to other studios is to hold off on major content updates and paid marketing during the launch window, then save re-engagement efforts for when attention settles.

What isn't confirmed yet

• Rockstar and Take-Two have not published preorder numbers; the Sensor Tower figures are estimates.
• Global and physical preorder totals are not covered by this data.
• Open World's findings are survey-based projections about player behaviour, not measured results.

For broader context, GamesIndustry.biz says analysts it polled earlier in the year predicted first-year sales anywhere from 30 million to more than 50 million units.